Canada Foreign Policy
Sunday, May 30, 2004
 
Where’s Canada, and other Chinese Curses?

May you get everything you wish for, and may you live in interesting times. The world is changing, and now there’s no doubt the emerging global system threatens to leave Canada well behind.

The public goes to the polls on 28 June 2004 to elect a new federal parliament, and for the first time in well over a decade there is some suspense. Apathy, scandals, and cynicism about politicians may conspire to produce surprisingly low voter participation that could, in turn, skew the results. No one doubts the Liberals will resurface as the largest party in a 308-seat legislature, but how far from a majority remains a wide open question. Some polling data suggest the new Conservative Party, with perhaps only a hundred seats or so, could be poised to form the slimmest of minority governments in coalition with the Bloc Quebecois, should Liberal fortunes in Quebec continue to falter. Jack Layton’s New Democratic Party (NDP), meanwhile, is all but entertaining open dialogue about what it intends to do in Cabinet once it allies with the subdued Liberals.

Foreign policy and international relations have made cameo appearances on the agenda, but not in ways that might give any candidate advantages. Instead where international affairs have found a forum, the result has been to highlight politicians’ naivete or the degree to which Canada has lost influence.

Tory Leader Stephen Harper, a supporter of Coalition efforts in Iraq, now goes on record suggesting that had Canada backed the invasion, no Canadians would have numbered among the casualties. Washington, he says, understands this country’s lack of military preparedness and would have accepted only our moral support. Yet Liberals are taking pleasure in reminding that Harper once advocated sending soldiers. A visit to the Liberal-sponsored www.stephenharpersaid.ca reveals statements made by the Tory chief where he says “we support the war effort and believe we should be supporting our troops and our allies and be there with them doing everything necessary to win” (originally published in Montreal Gazette, 2 April 2003). Harper even claimed to be speaking for Canada’s “silent majority” (CP, 3 April 2003). Hindsight suggests Harper may have no students of geopolitics in his coterie, and his implied beliefs in Canadians’ convictions on Iraq, the ease of consolidating victory in that conflict, and a faith in being able to avoid casualties were ill-informed at best. Yet his judgements on the Middle East crises do not appear to be an issue with the public, with polls showing his fortunes continuing to rise.

Liberals’ ability to perhaps be more in tune with geopolitical realities is far from suggesting this can help them in any way. In fact, if voters were to dissect Liberal pronouncements with any degree of care, they might just conclude Prime Minister Martin is either living in denial about Canada’s capacities, or consciously distorting our ability to keep pace with global change. For instance, Martin has mentioned Canada’s membership in the G8, and has said he will attend a gathering next month prepared to defend Canadians’ interests by lobbying for lower world energy prices. While he just may give an eloquent speech, will anyone really notice? Already thinkers who purport an ability to look past ongoing crises, terrorism, and the Middle East are noticing that centers of financial and political power are migrating, and China, India and several other emerging economies are about to surface as new suzerains. In a world where Beijing will exercise much more control, there is a question about Canada, and whether or not this country even deserves membership in the G8. In his 19 May 2004 Toronto Star column, David Crane cites several reports, including one prepared by investment bank Goldman Sachs called Growth and Development: The Path to 2050, and stresses: “ ‘If the G-7[G8] were to become a forum where true worldwide economic policy co-ordination was discussed, the U.S., Japan, Germany, France and the U.K. would be joined by China and India rather than Italy and Canada,’ the Goldman Sachs report argues, on the grounds that these emerging economies will increasingly be more important than Canada or Italy” [Toronto Star, 19 May 2004, cited in http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1084918210432&call_pageid=968350072197&col=969048863851].

Is Stephen Harper thankful his wishes about Iraq have yet to be granted, and will Paul Martin ever explain how interesting this country’s future just might be?


Stan Markotich
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A discussion of geopolitics and Canada's role in the world. A series of essays to examine the components of Canadian foreign policy making. Psychological, sociological, historical, and cultural variables impacting Canada's perceptions of the world.

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