Canada Foreign Policy
Wednesday, February 28, 2007
  Is Peru Important?

With world markets beginning to melt down yesterday, and now according to some, stabilizing, it may be a good time to look at economics. While it may be premature to conclude this correction is over, and volatility may just grind away, drawing down values over the next four to six months before any bounce of any significance can occur, recent and ongoing events highlight how important the economy is to foreign policy. A downdraft in Shanghai triggered bad times across world markets, and trade and investment patterns may be impacted.

A region that traditionally receives little coverage in Canada is Latin America. More specifically, South America, and while countries like Brazil, Chile and Argentina are mentioned by media, it is rare to come across commentaries about Peru, Bolivia, Ecuador, or Paraguay. Invariably analysts and reporters address one or several of four major themes when Latin America does gain some attention. There is always Mexico, and stories about how it fits into North American trade (NAFTA) are not uncommon. Sometimes Cuba is discussed, and here it is customary to explain how and why bilateral relations have always been stable if not good, with reference made to the fact that Canada did not join the embargo of Fidel Castro’s regime, enabling ties. There was at one time the issue of immigration and refugees, and a cottage industry dominated principally by government analysts and academics periodically examined individuals and groups fleeing repressive regimes, with invariably the conclusion being made that those who arrived integrated successfully, managing to leave behind any associations with far left or far right ideologies. And then there was trade news from and about South America, in the 1990s usually dealing with Brazil, and how that economy might cause competition headaches for Canadian companies, notably for those in the aerospace sector.

Economics and South America are once again making an impact in Canada. These days places like Peru are stealing some headlines, and claims are that Canadians are open to investment ideas. Marketers of Latin America observe "Peru’s stable economic growth and positive financial outlook have attracted various international banking institutions... [including] Scotiabank (Canada)" [cited in "Peru’s Growing Economy Attracts Spanish Banking Group Santander," LIP News, 23 February 2007. Posted at http://www.livinginperu.com/news/3260]. Just how important relations may be with Peru was signaled in late January 2007, when a visit by a high-ranking official to Ottawa took place after almost a decade. Peru’s Agriculture Minister, Juan Jose Salazar, was "the highest-ranking official from Peru to come on a working visit to Canada since former president Alberto Fujimori in 1998" and his mission was to discuss bilateral free trade. Salazar maintained "Peru wants to be closer to Canada, both politically and economically. He expressed his government's awareness of the Canadian market’s significance for Peruvian exports, the potential benefits of a bilateral free trade agreement, and how co-operation in critical areas can be consolidated and improved." He also noted that Peru offers political, legal and economic stability, which no doubt was meant to sound reassuring and enticing to the roughly80 Canadian companies already investing an estimated $5 billion, mostly in the Peruvian mining sector [cited in Vladimir Torres’ "Canada to Discus Free Trade with Peru," The Hill Times, 31 January 2007. Story posted at http://www.embassymag.ca/html/index.php?display=story&full_path=/2007/january/31/peru/].

And while officials from Lima make their way to Ottawa, PromPeru, Peru’s promotional agency, is working to make Canadians want to trek to the South American nation. Official sources say that in 2006 tourism was up about 25%, with roughly 41,500 Canadians taking the journey. Most of them are well off, earning upwards of $95,000 in annual salary and falling in the 25-54 year-old demographic [cited in "Peru Targets Canadian Tourists," LIP News, 22 February 2007. Posted at http://www.livinginperu.com/news/3251].

But events in Shanghai on 27 February 2007 may yet turn out to have a profound impact on Canadian-Latin American ties. A question may be whether or not 2006 marks, at least for a while, the high point in Canadian relations with Peru.

Posted by Stan Markotich
Send comments to stanmarkotich@yahoo.com 
Monday, February 26, 2007
  "Domesticating" Afghanistan:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070226.wharper0226/BNStory/National/home

http://www.canada.com/topics/news/national/story.html?id=94c0df30-c709-44bb-8f71-845d386d8a58&k=78253


Posted by Stan Markotich
Send comments to stanmarkotich@yahoo.com 
Sunday, February 25, 2007
  Stephen Harper, Green and "Domesticating" China


"I don’t believe there is a green bone in Stephen Harper’s body–he has never, ever indicated he cares about the environment." That’s what activist and scholar David Suzuki said recently when speaking to Calgary elementary school students and parents [remarks cited in Bill Kaufmann’s "Suzuki Slams Harper, Alberta," The Edmonton Sun, 24 February 2007. Story posted at http://www.edmontonsun.com/News/Alberta/2007/02/24/3661631-sun.html].


Some might believe Suzuki makes a strong point. Prime Minister Harper didn’t win the last election promising to focus on the environment. He may have even underscored his lack of commitment when appointing Rona Ambrose to the portfolio. And then there’s the fact that he only recently found religion, sometime within the past eight weeks or so, when polls started showing that environmental issues were important to Canadians. Harper also got the message when Liberal leader Stephane Dion attempted to walk away with the issue.


But does Harper really not care at all about the environment? The media, sometime in the past month or so, and for whatever reasons, decided to devote an extraordinary amount of time and energy to covering the issue. Perhaps Harper simply took note of this, and reacted. On the other hand, the environment may have strategic value for the Tories. It may not be the environment itself that interests them, but the environment as an issue may come into play, with critical consequences. If it can be framed as a purely domestic matter, then Harper may feel comfortable talking up "green" in the context of launching a reelection bid. Almost certainly the Conservatives will devote time to the economy, to crime, regional development, immigration... But if they can’t find the means of steering the debate away from social conservatism, Harper’s Tories may be limited to another minority. And so the environment becomes important. Pointing out the Liberals’ abysmal record may put Dion on the defensive. Talking about the environment as a domestic issue may also play well with a rather large (or large enough) segment of the voting public so as to not cost the Conservatives any votes. If Harper takes up the environment, but abandons the link with Kyoto, he may be able to create a uniquely Canadian, domestic policy discussion. And if this happens, the Liberals may find themselves in a corner, unable to raise fears or concerns about regressive social agendas.


But it isn’t just the environment that finds itself being turned into a domestic issue. All of foreign policy is being transformed. Those matters that cannot be managed or controlled are quietly and conveniently not being addressed. Afghanistan is not talked about, and media are devoting less and less attention to Central Asia in a trend likely to continue for the foreseeable future. It was only some weeks ago that signs suggested the Tories might work hard to revive public diplomacy. Minister David Emerson went to China for trade discussions, seemingly aware that relations with Beijing had been strained. But rather abruptly there was an about-face, and presenting a message for a domestic Canadian audience again consumed the Harper Tories. On 9 February 2007 Harper himself said: "There are those in the opposition who will say, ‘You know, China is an important country, so we shouldn’t really protest these things … so maybe someday we’ll be able to sell more goods there’...I think that’s irresponsible. I think the government of Canada, when a Canadian citizen is ill-treated and when the rights of a Canadian citizen need to be defended, I think it’s always the obligation of the government of Canada to vocally and publicly stand up for that Canadian citizen. That is what we will continue to do" [PM quoted in "Harper Chides China over Economic Threats," CBC News, 9 February 2007. Story posted at http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2007/02/09/harper-china.html].The PM’s words came in response to statements from Beijing officials that raising human rights and the specific case of Huseyin Celil, a Canadian citizen held by the Chinese on charges of terrorism, may aggravate ties.


There’s little doubt the Tories are in the process of redefining particular issues for their impact on domestic public opinion. The environment and foreign policy are in the process of being "domesticated." The questions–why exactly now and for what precise purposes?

Posted by Stan Markotich
Send comments to stanmarkotich@yahoo.com 
Thursday, February 08, 2007
  There go relations with China?

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20070208/celil_070208/20070208?hub=TopStories

Posted by Stan Markotich
Send comments to stanmarkotich@yahoo.com 
Sunday, February 04, 2007
  Turkey, Iran, and the Kurds...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16959214/site/newsweek/


Posted by Stan Markotich
Send comments to stanmarkotich@yahoo.com 
A discussion of geopolitics and Canada's role in the world. A series of essays to examine the components of Canadian foreign policy making. Psychological, sociological, historical, and cultural variables impacting Canada's perceptions of the world.

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